And if the family of Egypt do not go up: Family is used in the same broad sense as in the previous verse, and so family of Egypt may be translated as “the Egyptian people” (New International Version) or simply “the Egyptians” (Good News Translation, Contemporary English Version, Bible en français courant, Parola Del Signore: La Bibbia in Lingua Corrente). In this case the destination of go up, “to Jerusalem,” is understood from verse 17.
Present themselves refers to coming before the LORD to celebrate the Festival of Shelters. New English Bible and Revised English Bible render this as “enter the city,” and New International Version has “take part.” New Jewish Publication Society’s Tanakh puts this verb together with the previous one, and translates both with the clause “if the community of Egypt does make this pilgrimage.”
Then upon them shall come the plague: The Revised Standard Version translation, like most modern versions, is based on the text of the Septuagint. The Hebrew text contains an extra word meaning “and not,” which is difficult to fit in to the rest of the sentence. Those scholars and translators who follow the Hebrew adopt one or other of two interpretations. Some treat the second half of the verse as a question: “shall there not be upon them the plague…?” (Revised Version footnote, Traduction œcuménique de la Bible). This understanding has two problems. First, it ignores the punctuation in the traditional Hebrew text, which separates the plague from the negative particle. Second, it has to assume that the clause is a question, which is unexpected and which the Hebrew does not indicate in any way.
Other scholars and translators follow the Vulgate in keeping the Hebrew punctuation, and in assuming that the words “there will be rain” are to be understood as repeated from the previous verse to go with the negative particle. This view is represented most clearly and simply in New International Version “If the Egyptian people do not go up and take part, they will have no rain” (compare Revised Version, New American Standard Bible, New King James Version , Beck). It is often claimed that this would be no real punishment for Egypt because it has very little rain anyway and depended for its fertility not on rain but on the annual flooding of the Nile River. This objection seems misplaced. Surely both the prophet and the Egyptians would have realized that the flooding arose from rainfall in the area of the Nile headwaters, even if they did not know exactly where these were. A general drought might not affect Lower Egypt as quickly as other countries, but it would affect it just as surely in the end.
The conclusion is that the interpretation found in New International Version is the least problematic and deserves to be followed. It is supported by Lacocque and by Meyers & Meyers, and Critique Textuelle de l’Ancien Testament also recommends that the Hebrew text should be retained. A rendering based on the Greek translation can be included in a footnote, as in New International Version.
What the plague refers back to will depend on whether we follow the Hebrew text or the Greek. If the Greek text is followed, as in Revised Standard Version, then the plague probably refers to the epidemic mentioned by the same word in verses 12 and 15. Thus Egypt would apparently suffer plague in the sense of disease instead of drought. If the Hebrew text is followed, as in New International Version, then the plague probably refers to punishment in a more general sense, as in the book of Exodus, and refers in this context to the punishment of drought. It is also possible that even if we follow the Hebrew text, the plague may still refer to disease. In that case the people of Egypt would receive double punishment, both drought and disease, for failing to go and celebrate the Festival of Shelters. There is no reason in the context why the Egyptians should be punished more severely than anyone else, and this Handbook recommends that the plague should be taken as a general term referring to the drought, and possibly translated as something like “disaster” or “calamity.”
With which the LORD afflicts the nations that do not go up to keep the feast of booths: The nations refers to the same groups as those referred to by the words “the families of the earth” in verse 17. For go up, see the notes on verse 16. For to keep the feast of the booths, see also the notes on verse 16.
Quoted with permission from Clark, David J. & Hatton, Howard A. A Handbook on Zechariah. (UBS Helps for Translators). New York: UBS, 2002. For this and other handbooks for translators see here .