Revised Standard Version supplies God said, for the speaker is not identified. But the context indicates, as Good News Translation translates, that “The LORD” is again speaking. If they will not believe you probably refers to “the Israelites” as in verse 1 and in 3.13. Believe is the same word as in 4.1.
Or heed the first sign is literally “or hear the voice of the first sign.” To “hear the voice” of a sign means to “accept the evidence of” (New English Bible), or simply “be convinced by.” The first sign refers to changing the rod into a snake, and it may be clearer to make this explicit, as in Die Bibel im heutigen Deutsch, “If they are not convinced by the wonder with the rod,” or one may say “If the rod’s changing into a snake doesn’t convince them that I have sent you,” or even “when your rod changes into a snake, if they are still not convinced, then….” The same word is used in 3.12, where the intended meaning is “proof” that the LORD had appeared to Moses; here the reference is to a “miracle” performed by Moses as proof of divine power. (See the comment on “wonders” at 3.20.)
They may believe the latter sign is literally “and they will believe the sound of that sign.” The word for “sound” has been translated as “voice” (American Standard Version), “witness” (New American Standard Bible), “message” (New American Bible), or “evidence” (Revised English Bible), but most translations leave the word untranslated. The meaning is nearly the same. The latter sign refers to his hand becoming diseased and then being healed. It may be sufficient to say “this one,” or simply “the second” (New English Bible). The doubt implied by they may believe is suggested only by verse 9; here it is clearly “they will believe,” or “this one will convince them,” or even “they will believe when they see your hand become diseased [or, flaky].”
Alternative translation models for this verse are:
• The LORD said, “If your walking stick changing into a snake does not convince the Israelites that I have sent you, then they will believe when they see your hand become diseased [or, flaky].
• When your walking stick changes into a snake, if the Israelites still don’t believe that I have sent you, then they will believe when….
Quoted with permission from Osborn, Noel D. and Hatton, Howard A. A Handbook on Exodus. (UBS Helps for Translators). New York: UBS, 1999. For this and other handbooks for translators see here .
